Above: A worker sorts almonds at Capay Canyon Ranch in Esparto, Calif., in April. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer and exporter of almonds, with 80% of the global supply coming from California. PHOTO: ELIJAH NOUVELAGE/REUTERS
excerpt:
After suffering through years of drought that hurt crop yields, California’s almond industry recently bounced back, with the state projecting the current year’s crop to be the biggest on record. Chinese demand for the popular tree nut was also up sharply in the first half of this year.
Could be a bit of difficult calculus developing. The easy to identify variable: almonds require a lot of water and California water is expensive; almonds are an already pricey alternative to dreaded allergy-laden peanut products (e.g. pretzel bits instead of peanuts in back of aircraft – when was the last time you saw a Blue Diamond package on an airplane?) and even Costco almond butter is several times its peanut equivalent by volume/weight; marzipan demand isn’t likely to make up for reduced Chinese imports even after California almond co-ops cut prices . . .
I think that the article points out that (and the charts that I can’t see now because I hit the WSJ paywall) a 10% decrease in prices started about 2 months ago and seems directly connected to the tariff issue, the increase in water prices and popularity of almonds notwithstanding.
Soybean prices have fallen about 21% since April and the tariff dispute.
