I’m going to work really hard to tie this back to food. Please bear with me.
What I see globally is partisan politics overwhelming concern for the well being of one’s country and people. Before anyone yells “look, he agrees with me” I observe the same characteristics across the political spectrum (which I see as a four dimensional space, a discussion not appropriate for Hungry Onion). Politicians are are more concerned with being “right” or “winning” than with the welfare of the country. There seems so little room for accepting that others may feel different paths than those we support are the best way forward. Why can we no longer engage in civil discourse with those we may not agree with?
So we can turn to food, although there are lots of other factors some of which we have touched on including energy.
We (big we as well as HO we) should be able to say, for purposes of discussion, what if we take this path what are the ramifications and how can we minimize unpleasantness. Then there should be the same discussion for the other identified options. Then you send everyone home for the weekend to think of new options. Every option has cascading effects (which most politicians ignore, assuming everything else will stay the same as they fiddle).
We can make some assumptions and talk about the affect on the food supply chain of a hard Brexit. We need to explore (this is called a sensitivity analysis) different boundary conditions. For example Germany and France enter a recession accelerated by reduced exports and Italy becomes more nationalist under the pending government. Tariffs and duties fall far from worst case scenarios of the Remainers. On the other hand, the UK could say “never mind” and still suffer the departure of many financial institutions that have fled London; they aren’t coming back. Of course hard feelings abound. Regardless there will be yet more division between parties (who have platforms) and individuals (regardless of party) who believe things would have been less worse (pardon my grammar) had circumstances evolved more to their liking. sigh
Without respect to the final path and neglecting as much as possible what does this mean for food, especially for individuals especially our UK member friends here at HO? We know that the UK has a robust agriculture that exports as well as imports. We can be confident that there will be enough food. It may not be exactly the food you want, but there will be enough. Brexit or not, food prices will increase some as companies have spent money on plans and developing contingencies for the hard, soft, and no Brexit. Some will have been more efficient in their planning than others. Those costs must be covered somewhere and the only place is at the retail and wholesale outlets. Even if the outcome is ‘no Brexit’ (which I think is unlikely) EU companies will have been working to find other places to send their product and will be meeting those commitments. Even with ‘no Brexit’ some food products may not be available for a while.
In my opinion the biggest impact will be on fresh goods that move by truck and rail (in both directions remember) between UK and EU. Frozen and tinned goods are much less sensitive to time. Moving food by sea is really inexpensive but time consuming. Frozen and tinned food from offshore, both BOTS and third party countries including the US, may well be cheaper than fresh from the EU.
Let’s not forget that we (big we) are not starting from scratch here. Decisions have been made and other decisions made on the basis of those. There are no mulligans. The point is not the politics but that businesses (which are people after all) are making decisions in the face of unknowns. Many of those decisions would be very expensive to undo and right or wrong are likely to be sustained.
Dancing with politics is the reality that immigration directly affects food. Legal (mostly in the current EU that includes the UK) or not (much of the US) immigrants work in warehouses and commercial kitchens. Change that and many other things change as well. Regardless, if you can’t cook to feed yourself you should learn. Immigration is a significant part of Brexit supporters. It’s also a big issue in the continental EU and the departure of the UK will intensify that stress. In the US we have kitchens dominated by Hispanics (this is an observation and not a judgment) while in the EU North Africans are having an increasing presence.
There are a lot of other factors but what is appropriate for HO limits how intimately we should explore them.
In my opinion, Brits will not go hungry post-Brexit. See previous posts on what might be rational preparation. I still think the EU will suffer more from Brexit than the UK. I think that the UK will, within a few years, be stronger independent of the EU. Y’all may actually be able to recover some of the financial institutions that have fled. It’s going to be tough to compete with Rotterdam for shipping but you might win out there also if you can get the right agreements from the EU for Chunnel C&I. It is possible that a hard Brexit that hits the EU hard will improve the UK negotiating position. There are not guarantees.
In the meantime: UK lamb, UK cheese, allotments. grin The real big deal both writ large and for food specifically is going to be the Irish border.