Have you seen the “exit payments?” It’s extortion. The decision to leave is a British one. The terms of departure are one of the most ugly proposed divorce settlements I can think of.
I agree. But this is also to threaten other members who dare to raise the same EXIT question, to think of the consequences.
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That is what happened to much of the Y2K survival packs people in the States purchased in the fear of major commuter crashes. I knew one couple who spent a fortune preparing for the collapse they envisioned.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1961, my mom got caught up in the panic and bought some GIANT cans ( I mean like 25 or even 50 pound cans, the size of small oil barrels) of food. Apparently she was late to the party and everyone else had gotten the better stuff, because what she got was Hunt’s pork and beans, cling peaches in heavy syrup, and popcorn. Jesus christ. Imagine what a post-nuclear feast we could have had with that! Those cans were STILL sitting unopened in the back of the bottom cupboards when I went away to college in the 1970’s.
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Harters - I admit I “stocked up “ for the Y2k fiasco. Mainly toilet paper, bottled water(which we drink anyway ) and canned goods. Not a lot but enough. But I did this gradually over a period of time. Others had the same chance… this is a subject that could go off on so many tangents about different factions of society . We don’t live in a perfect world and to hope/expect others to feel /act the same way you do is unrealistic at best. I respect your opinion and wish you well.
Absolutely.
The latest update from my newspaper this morning is that the government is seriously considering suspending Parliament, for several weeks., so that there can be no legal opposition to a “No deal Brexit”. Without wishing to exaggerate the situation, but this is tantamount to a right wing coup which is planning to suspect our democracy. If they do it once, they can do it again. This is a far more serious situation for my country than the possible lack of Spanish tomatoes.
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That’s clearly a matter of opinion and not one that I share. The payments fall into three broad categories. Firstly, payments until the end of next year, during the “transition phase”, as though we were still a full member. Second, a commitment to make payments on projects already agreed. I presume some would be in the UK, as we’ve been a benificiary of the “regional development fund” (perhaps not its actual name). And, third, a smallish amount reflecting a commitment to continuing to fund some pension contributions for British employees of the EU.
Needless to say, the right wing Brextremists don’t agree with the payments. But then, they don’t agree with anything less than a very hard “no deal” Brexit. And, presumably, if we leave on “no deal”, our government will renege on its international commitments here and simply not pay. And no country will ever trust the UK again. And they’d be right not to do so.
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The numbers of course depend on who you ask. The UK OBR says £5 billion for the second half of 2019 and £33 billion for ongoing expenses. That’s a lot more than “projects already agreed.” Brussels is saying they can’t really develop a definitive number until there is a final agreement for them to go through line by line.
This sounds, to me, much like Ms. Pelosi’s comment that “we won’t know what is in the bill until we pass it” made in the run-up to the US Affordable Care Act.
I did some more research on electrical power. The UK depends on natural gas pipelines to the EU for about 20% of total electrical production. UK fields in the Irish Sea and North Sea can certainly produce more than they do–I don’t know how much. LNG shipments can certainly be ramped up. Imports from Norway could be increased. The last I read a few months ago wind generation from the new field was still ramping up. What I think will happen is that electrical supplies will be quite sufficient but there may be some price increases. EU states don’t want to lose the UK as a customer who likely won’t come back.
Set aside the volatile personalities, the G-7 meetings this week may strengthen the UK position vis a vis the EU. Mr. Trump is predisposed to poke his finger in the eye of EU leaders and commitments of support would make him a hero in his own view. Foundation for agreements with Japan seem possible.
Hard Brexit means not only no payments to the EU (given after-exit negotiation for support of “projects already agreed”) but the loss of a lot of customers. I continue to see Brexit as harder on the EU than the UK and much upside for the UK. Utility services look stable with some minor inconvenience. I haven’t been able to pull thread on water treatment chemicals supply chain.
Directly on topic, I certainly would not be buying overpriced dehydrated “kits.” It’s a waste of money and a waste of the food that went into the buckets. One might be well-advised to get the biggest allotment available; I understand there are vacant plots across the UK. If nothing else the work is good for your health.
Stock up on Branston pickle. Learn to make pickled onions. Dust off your mothers pressure canner. Be flexible. Brush up on that stiff upper lip. grin
I’ve made pickled onions for many years - they are almost world famous. And I have tried an internet recipe for a version of Branston which was OK but not an improvement on the real thing - whereas my Christmas chutney is almost as famous as the onions. Both fab with a slice of pork pie and cold turkey on Boxing Day.
As for the whole Brexit process, it is much more than a matter of economics and trade. It’s really about how we see ourselves as a country and the kind of society we want to live in. In that, lies the really big divide between Remainers and Leavers.
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I agree that real Branston pickle is very hard to match, much less beat. Rather hard to find here in the colonies. grin If you would share your recipe I would be grateful. I’m using one off the Internet. Heck I’ll take your recipe for pickled onions as well; mine is fine but nothing to wave a flag about. Happy to share in return. Lasagna that Italians swoon over? Mexican shredded chicken that Hispanics love? dave@auspiciousworks.com
We probably use the same internet recipe for Branston, Dave. My Christmas chutney, it’s a mix of chopped prunes, dates, apricots and onion, cooked up with cider vinegar, ground ginger., salt, allspice (or ginger) and demerara sugar. It simmers for a good couple of hours and needs to mature for at least three months. Keeps pretty much forever in the cupboard, even after being opened. I’ve just finished a jar of the 2017 vintage.
As for the pickled onions, my recipe goes back so far, it’s in pints and ounces, rather than metric. But the onions sit in a brine made at a ratio of 8oz salt to 4 pt water for 24 hours. They’re drained and roughly dried off. Separately, i use a ready mixed pack of “pickling spice” which goes into malt vinegar which is brought to the boil, then turned off and left to steep for 24 hours. Then it’s a simple matter of the onions going into Kilner jars and being covered in the vinegar. I like to put a couple of pinches of the spice mix into the jars as well. I usually make them in September and try one mid December just to make sure everything is OK. Their first proper appearance is Boxing Day as mentioned.
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Hullo John,
For Branston pickle I use this: http://www.pickyourown.org/branstonpickle.htm . I hot pack it in pint jars and use the mixed vegetable relish guidance https://nchfp.uga.edu/publications/usda/GUIDE06_HomeCan_rev0715.pdf for boiling water canning for 10 minutes.
I’ll give your Christmas chutney a try. We’re still seeing fresh apricots in the markets this year. This weekend is scheduled but my wife will be on business travel for a few days so I’ll have plenty of time try your recipe. Thank you for sharing.
grin pints and ounces are not a problem. I’m bilingual - Imperial and metric - and while I prefer weights volumes are fine. Kilner jars–which make me think of Grolsch beer–are rather dear in my area but I have lots of Ball canning jars. Those will do nicely.
The Branston pickle and the pickled onion reflect the surrender of my effort to get a ploughman’s lunch in the US. We have many establishments purporting to be “genuine British pubs” but none offer a simple ploughman’s. I will try to remember to post pictures and give credit where it is due.
In turn, the lasagna recipe I make comes from an obscure corner of the Internet http://www.cookingforengineers.com/recipe/36/Meat-Lasagna . I am of British/German/Russian extraction but my lasagna is asked for at every family gathering of my wife’s entirely Italian family. The ricotta mix instead of a Béchamel may be a bit risque but it works beautifully. My adjustments are few. I insist on boiling the noodles (no “oven ready”). The recipe makes a 9x13 (sorry, inches) so I double it and make three 8x8s to feed the freezer. I make everything right up to the point of going in the oven and freeze at that point. I use disposable pans for trips but at home I line casseroles with plastic or paper to freeze and then transfer the “bricks” to zipper-top or vacuum seal bags. Frozen hard they take nearly a day to defrost in the refrigerator before going into the oven. A few 8x8s in your freezer would do well as Brexit prep. grin
My Mexican shredded chicken is not much of a recipe. I use a slow cooker but you could as easily use a dutch oven. A couple of boneless skinless chicken breasts (thighs work fine if you prefer, heck you can use most of chicken and the bones will come out by themselves at the end). 10 to 12 oz of diced tomato, a dollop of green chilis, a small onion diced and sauteed, a clove of garlic minced. You don’t even have to stir it - just dump it in the pot and turn it on low for about eight hours. Stove top as low as you can go for about four. Don’t peek to keep it from drying out. About half an hour before eating use a couple of forks to shred the chicken and pick out any bones, if you started with them. Give it a stir and let it sit a few minutes while you make rice, set the table, make a salad, and hug your wife. grin
We often make the Mexican shredded chicken on “big cook” weekends as loading up the slow cooker is easy and we don’t have to think about it while we are cooking for the canner or the freezer.
Back on topic in the unlikely event of power fluctuations post-Brexit I highly recommend manual slow cookers. An electronic cooker or other “smart” device (Instant Pot for example shudder) will reset. A manual slow cooker with a simple rotary off-low-high switch will flywheel through short outages so you’ll have dinner instead of a bacterial stew.
Let’s not forget that Brexit is why the Gulf Stream is shifting South and y’all are going to have to start mulching your roses in winter and cutting your grass taller. (<-- feeble attempt at humor)
And I bet they also serve “shepherds pie” but use beef not lamb. 
Recipe for the Christmas chutney:
350g pitted no-soak prunes
300g pitted dates,
300g dreid apricots
500g onion
500ml cider vinegar
1 tsp ground ginger
50g salt
2 tsp ground allspice
500g demerara sugar
Chop the fruits and onion fairly finely (I like mine quite fine). Mix everything together in the pan and simmer till it’s properly thick (a good couple of hours). Makes about 1 litre.
“Properly thick” is usually advised to be when you can draw a wooden spoon across the top of the mix and it doesnt fill with liquid.
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Yes. The term ‘shepherd’ seems lost on people. grin Lamb is not all that terribly common in the US and is expensive when you can get it. One of the many pleasures of visiting the Bahamas is the well-priced surplus NZ lamb that we enjoy. I’m not sure where the goat comes from but that is good as well, although not as good as in the windward islands of the Caribbean.
Further consideration suggests that ‘stocking up’ could be put in two categories: survival and economics. My take of the evolving situation (with little personal risk across the pond) is that survival isn’t a big issue. Someone with the time could look at the duty and tariffs imposed by the EU on particular food items to non-EU countries and stock up on items that haven’t already suffered price increases. Perhaps French, Spanish, and Italian wines. Maybe truffles. Prosciutto. Tulip bulbs. Maybe a 200 litre chest freezer.
Reporting from the G-7 suggest my thought that Mr. Trump would be happy to poke his finger in the eyes of EU leaders by supporting trade with the UK is correct. Perhaps we can interest you in a bunch of corn and some soy beans? grin
The expansion of the Panama Canal has resulted in massive upgrades to US East Coast ports as various cities (Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Charleston, Baltimore, Newark/New York) jockey for position. Ships that used to head to US West Coast ports from Asia will now be able to go directly to East Coast ports avoiding transshipment costs. There is plenty of capacity for sea routes to the UK. We can even ship you BMW autos made in Spartenburg South Carolina. Not sure how long it will take to support right hand drive. Have you considered shifting over? grin
You’ll have to grow your own tomatoes. Most of ours are not very good. The tinned ones are decent.
Y’all probably know this already, but don’t let the Norwegians ship you lutefisk.
Agreed. No-one is going to starve. Just over 50% of the UK’s food is homegrown and, of course, other stuff comes from non-EU countries . For example, greens beans in the supermarket come from Kenya and a couple of hours drive south of here in Warwickshire. We bought the UK ones. But a lot of our salad products are grown in Spain and are shipped by road. A no deal Brexit is likely to be problematical at UK ports until/unless arrangements are sorted out. The impact on food supplies is that stuff we just expect to be reliably on the supermarket shelves simply may not be.
The situation between Ireland and Northern Ireland is a nightmre - not least because it’s our only land border with an EU country and goods & people easily flow back and forth - but there are also issues reagrding the province’s peace process.
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I believe I’ve actually driven past the plant. Or very near to it. It came as a surprise
Well understood. No one wants a return of the Troubles.
Just looking at numbers it would seem that Brexit will be more onerous for Ireland than the UK, certainly with respect to agriculture and food supply chain. They may be eating a lot of fish. The impacts are dependent on so many unknowns and predicting the outcomes with so many national and personal egos involved is truly a roll of the dice.
My dice, confirmed by my crystal ball, concur with John’s (@Harters) - no meaningful food shortages, some disappointments with respect to food items we have come to expect to always be on market shelves.
In my opinion no reason at all to purchase dehydrated food “kits” (yes, I am repeating myself). A little study of substitutions (I can recommend “On Food and Cooking” by Harold McGee if that is available in the UK) and the fine art of “refrigerator scraping” ™. The craft of cooking may overcome the more recent adherence to recipes. I think that is, in the end, a good thing.
Allotments may once again be called ‘victory gardens.’ Now is the time to rally around in support of neighbors and countrymen (in a non-gender specific way of course).
The geography suggests that could well be the case. I have no statistics but a sense that Ireland may not have too much sea traffic to the rest of the EU (at present). A supplier in, say, Spain is likely to ship to Ireland, trucking it to Calais, then driving through the UK to the port at Holyhead in North Wales and then by the ferry to Ireland. Many of Irelands exports probably take a similar route. Or perhaps there’s a similar journey involving the ferry from Stranraer in Scotland to Belfast. Either way, that means goods to/from Ireland are going to have to travel through a non-EU country before getting back into the EU. You can imagine the paperwork - literal or electronic.
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Which leads to concerns in the EU (not just IRL) about what stocking up they might consider.
It would be interesting to explore scenarios for food on either side of the border that is likely to but does not yet exist that, until negotiations conclude, may not appear on market shelves. What are the substitutions? What is the impact? What are the costs at a personal level that come from the discussions between bureaucrats in Brussels and bureaucrats in London? What can I grow in my garden to replace or substitute for something? Pardon my vocabulary (American! grin) but to what extent might Brexit be an opportunity for what Americans call truck gardens and the stalls we see in BBC Eastenders? grin Here in the US we have a stumbling movement of “Eat Fresh, Shop Local” for which Brexit could provide some real impetus in the UK; you probably have your own equivalent (and we may have gotten it from you).
However Brexit unfolds whether hard, soft, or fail I look forward to the impact on UK cottage food industries. For whatever it is worth I’ll be back to the UK. My wife wants to fly. I want to sail Auspicious. Six to eight hours vice six to eight weeks. What difference? grin
The stalls you see in Eastenders would be selling Italian apples, Spanish tomatoes and Polish blueberries. It really is a very integrated market and, in terms of things like this, the Union is really seamlessly pan-Europe.
The problem over food will be relatively short term. A matter of some months. In the meantime, the problem will be delays at the border. The UK’s main food import route with the EU is the Dover-Calais crossing. Currently seamless, as I say, a truck full of aubergines can leave southern Spain, in the knowledge of pretty much exactly how long it is going to take to get to the customer’s storage depot in the UK. Similarly, the supermarket can rely on the delivery and plan stocks properly. Until the “paperwork” is sorted out for a longterm new relationship with EU companies, there is the real risk of delays at the port. That is where the significant problem lies.
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